There's a giant this year.
It's been a few years since there was a consensus behemoth expected to roll to the national championship the way there is this year. Back then, in 2005, it was USC, which steamrolled its way to the BCS Championship Game behind Heisman Trophy winners Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush, but was upset by Texas when Vince Young turned in one of the finest individual performances in the history of college football.
This year it's Florida, the defending national champions.
The Gators, remarkably, bring back every single one of the 22 players on their two-deep on defense, a group that was fourth in the nation in scoring defense. On offense, they return eight starters, including running back Jeff Demps and three linemen.
And then there's Tim Tebow, the man who helped Florida to the national championship as a freshman, won the Heisman Trophy as a sophomore, led the Gators to a second national championship last year and may have had a better individual season despite losing out on the Heisman to Oklahoma's Sam Bradford.
Throw in a favorable schedule - very favorable - and there's really no reason to think Florida won't be back in the BCS Championship Game. The lone game that jumps out as a tough test, a real chance for Florida to lose, is at LSU on Oct. 10, but even if the Gators lose that single game they'll still likely reach the title game.
It's been four years since two undefeated teams played for the crystal trophy, and three since even a single undefeated team has made the BCS Championship Game. If Florida loses one regular season game but wins a conference that includes Alabama, Mississippi, LSU and Georgia, it will play for the title.
But Florida won't lose a regular season game.
Alabama and Mississippi aren't on the schedule, and Georgia is at a neutral site in Jacksonville. Florida State, which plays at Florida on Nov. 28 and is ranked 18th by the Associated Press and 19th in the USA Today poll heading into the season, is still far from the Seminole teams that wound up in the top-four for 14 straight years from 1987 to 2000.
There's really just that game at LSU to worry about, and coach Urban Meyer and Tebow, now a senior, seem to have Florida on a mission, playing not simply for another national championship but for a place in history.
"It was completely crazy around here after the 2006 (national championship)," said Meyer at the team's media day on Aug. 11. "We lost focus, and I take a lot of blame for that. With all these things going on and staff members doing different things, we just tried to keep it very basic this time around. ... So far, I'm very pleased with our approach in 2009."
"There is a huge desire by everyone on this team to be great," Tebow said that same day. "Not only to be great, but to have a standard of excellence that everyone lives up to is our goal. Every year we want to be great, but I think this year everyone really means and believes it."
So the mystery is who will meet the Gators in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 7.
Georgia Tech, which is in its second season under coach Paul Johnson and will be a year better at his triple-option running game, should improve on the 9-4 Yellow Jackets of a year ago. But a team from the ACC would have to go undefeated to play for the national title, and that's too much to ask of Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech is another ACC team with the potential to be in the title mix, but the loss of running back Darren Evans for the season and a schedule that includes Alabama, Nebraska, Miami, Georgia Tech and North Carolina is too much to navigate without a blemish.
USC is starting a true freshman at quarterback, and has road games against Ohio State, Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame. Notre Dame has an easy schedule, but remains talent-deficient. Cal, with Jahvid Best, perhaps the best running back in the nation, has a favorable schedule, including USC in Berkeley on Oct. 4. But the Golden Bears always seem to slip, and a trip to Oregon could be their demise.
The team that will meet Florida in Pasadena is the team that should have met them in Miami last January.
Texas got burned by a bad system a year ago, losing out on a chance to play for the Big 12 championship because of a strange tiebreaker, and subsequently the national championship. The Longhorns beat Oklahoma going away when the two met head-to-head, but a loss to Texas Tech at the end of a brutal four-week stretch playing four top-11 teams dropped them into a three-way tie with the Sooners and Red Raiders in the Big 12 South's final standings.
Oklahoma, despite losing to Texas, was named the winner based on the BCS Standings.
The Longhorns won't need to rely on a tiebreaker this year.
Oklahoma is expected to again be excellent, but the Sooners have to replace four starting offensive linemen, which will leave them at a serious disadvantage against Texas on Oct. 17. That leaves a trip to Stillwater to play Oklahoma State on Halloween as the Longhorns' toughest test.
Texas, like Florida at LSU, will pass that test.
"We prepared all summer like we want to win every game, that's our goal," Texas quarterback Colt McCoy said at the start of fall camp. "Right now, while we're in camp, how hard we work now toward getting ready for (the opener against) Louisiana-Monroe is going to determine how good we're going to be."
The Longhorns are on a little mission of their own. While Florida may be playing for a place in history, Texas has a chip the size of the Southwest on its shoulders after the way it got jobbed last year, and is on a collision course with the Gators.
And the Longhorns will win.
What We Learned
There was reason to preach patience with Rich Rodriguez last year.
After leaving West Virginia to replace Lloyd Carr at Michigan, the Wolverines went 3-9, missing out on a bowl game for the first time in 33 years. But that's what happens when Rodriguez takes over a program, converting it to his spread option attack.
It happened at Glanville State and West Virginia.
But both had substantially stronger second seasons under Rodriguez, and quickly reached excellence, so despite some reactionary calls for his firing after just one year there was every expectation that after a one-year blip the Wolverines would begin to climb.
This week, however, there's news of alleged NCAA violations, players claiming that they're forced to work on football far more than the 20 hours per week allowed by the NCAA during the football season and the 13 hours per week allowed during the off-season. In the following days came news of a lawsuit seeking millions from Rodriguez related to a condominium investment, and his ties to a banned booster.
"We are committed to following both the letter and the intent of the NCAA rules and we take any allegations of violations seriously," Michigan athletic director Bill Martin said in a statement. "We believe we have been compliant with NCAA rules but nonetheless we have launched a full investigation of the allegations."
Rodriguez, who made more than one misstep long before this past week after arriving in Ann Arbor, broke down in tears on Monday morning during a press conference.
"We know the rules and we comply by the rules," he said. "We have a very transparent program. ... We have a very open relationship with our compliance department."
There is no reason for Michigan to cut ties with Rodriguez right now. In fact, in the wake of the allegations against Rodriguez and his staff plenty of people have said players spend far more than 20 hours during the season and 13 hours in the off-season practicing and studying football at just about every school.
Even people from Ohio State came to Michigan's defense.
But if the Wolverines are put on probation, if turmoil continues to surround Rodriguez, there is no coach in the nation with a warmer burner broaching his bottom than the man in Ann Arbor.
Game of the Week
Preseason rankings are merely guesses, an estimation of where teams will wind up based on who returns from the year before and what level of talent is expected to step into major roles this year.
They mean little, except when it comes to the championship chase. The further down early in the season, the harder it is to climb all the way to the top - and the easier it is to climb back to the top after a loss.
Two teams with chances to reach the top play tomorrow night in prime time, an opportunity for each to announce their presence in the title race with authority.
Alabama, ranked fifth, and Virginia Tech, ranked seventh, meet in the Georgia Dome.
The Crimson Tide lost left tackle Andre Smith for last year's Sugar Bowl against Utah, and the Outland Trophy winner's absence showed in the loss. They also lost two others on their offensive line and bring back only five starters on that side of the ball (the defense returns almost in its entirety). Virginia Tech, meanwhile, had the seventh-ranked total defense a year ago and brings back three of four on the defensive line that will match up against 'Bama's offensive line.
The Hokies have started slowly in recent years, getting whipped by LSU early in the season two years ago and losing to East Carolina last year, but with Alabama undergoing some turnover on offense Virginia Tech could surprise.
"The one thing I would say about this team is they have toughness," Alabama coach Nick Saban said of Virginia Tech at his weekly press conference on Monday. "They play with toughness and you are going to have to match that toughness and intensity if you're going to have an opportunity to have success against them."
"They're a very talented football team and very well-coached football team, and we've got a tremendous challenge ahead of us," said Virginia Tech coach Frank Beamer on Wednesday.
Another game with similar implications is Georgia at Oklahoma State.
The Cowboys are a popular top-10 pick this year, and a win over the Bulldogs would legitimize that. Georgia, meanwhile, is sneaking under the radar this summer after starting last year atop the polls and then underperforming expectations. With stronger lines on both sides of the ball, the Bulldogs might be better than a year ago even without Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno.
Finally, there's Oregon at Boise State. If the Broncos win, look for them to wind up in a BCS bowl.
If I Had a Ballot ...
Florida (0-0): The Gators are set up perfectly for a run at the national championship.
Texas (0-0): Two games - Oklahoma in Dallas on Oct. 17 and at Oklahoma State two weeks later - are keys to the season.
Oklahoma (0-0): The offensive line will be good enough against almost everyone. Almost.
Georgia Tech (0-0): This team will surprise, and be a lot of fun to watch.
USC (0-0): A true freshman at quarterback could mean trouble, but tons of talent could mean brilliance.
Oklahoma State (0-0): A win over Georgia this weekend and suddenly this team would look flat-out dangerous.
Mississippi (0-0): Jevan Snead plus last year's closing burst make the Rebels a likely opponent for Florida in the SEC Championship.
Ohio State (0-0): Best team in a bad conference.
California (0-0): A win over USC on Oct. 3 and the Bears are in the national title picture.
Alabama (0-0): The defense could make up for any inexperience on offense, which includes quarterback and the offensive line.
(Eric Avidon is a Daily News staff writer. He can be reached by 508-626-3809 or eavidon@cnc.com.)
