If you're one of those law of averages people, you might be thinking Daisuke Matsuzaka is due for a comeuppance tonight.
You know the deal. Dice-K is 9-0 on the road this season. In a dozen bases-loaded situations, he's always gotten the third out without a single run scoring.
How long can that charmed life last?
In Game 1 of the ALDS Jon Lester was so masterful, so around the plate that as hard as they tried, the Angels couldn't squeeze anything from the young southpaw. The Angels' best shot came in the first inning. Lester just teased them, leaving the bases loaded, taking a page from Dice-K. In the seventh inning, Lester's last, he was still throwing 95 mph heat. Boston 4, Angels 1, and that one was unearned.
The common line of thinking for the visiting team in a series like this is to get a split in the first two games. Ah, but when said team wins the first game of the series, the philosophy changes to "Forget Splitsville, let's go for the jugular, boys." Precisely what the Red Sox have in mind.
A lot will depend on Matsuzaka. If he comes up big, and the offense can get to Ervin Santana, the Red Sox could end the series Sunday. How many conjured up that scenario? Even better. Boston would have its ace throwing in Game 3. And we don't mean Lester on three days rest. Time for a Channel 4 or WEEI.com poll: Who is Boston's ace, the incumbent Beckett or the fast-rising Lester?
Answer: who cares? Just consider yourselves mighty lucky, Red Sox fans. The Lester story needs no retelling here, nor does Beckett's shining postseason resume. Whomever you think is no. 1, the other is a heartbeat away, 1A.
Lester made the game look easy Wednesday night. Dice-K, for all his gaudy numbers, usually puts himself, his teammates and his manager through a hard day's night. Some innings are so grinding for him to get through that the outfielders sometimes get in a hand of poker between batters. Relieved at not facing the pinpoint Lester, the free-swinging Angels might decide to force Dice-K to work hard for his money. He hasn't gone deep into games because his pitch counts rise higher than Terry Francona's blood pressure. It's not easy chewing tobacco and quaffing Maalox at the same time.
Lester's become a tough act to follow. Let's see if Matsuzaka stakes his own claim.
Any Jason Bay or Jacoby Ellsbury carryover from Game 1 would increase Boston's chances of going up 2-0 in the best-of-five series. All Bay did was smack a game-winning homer. All Ellsbury did was reach base five times (although two were on a fielder's choice and an error). There's nobody the Red Sox want to see on base five times in a game more than Ellsbury. It comes under the heading Cruel & Unusual Punishment for the opposition.
Maybe Ellsbury, officially a rookie, is ready for another postseason launch. He's started seven games in October. The Sox are unbeaten in all of them. Next time Boston loses, somebody's going to have to explain what happened to Ellsbury.
The closest Justin Masterson got to the 2007 playoffs was his TV set. In Game 1 Francona trusted the gangly Masterson, in a 2-1 game, with the setup eighth inning, and he delivered. He gave up two hits, but got out of it for a clutch hold. Jonathan Papelbon took it from there.
Francona's faith in putting Masterson under the hot lights right away could do wonders for the rookie.
You may have watched Manny Ramirez homer (and beat out an infield hit) in the Dodgers' 7-2 win over the Cubs in their Game 1 and thought, "Oh no, he's not finished showing the Red Sox up." But Manny' homer only put the Dodgers up 5-2, James Loney's grand slam did the trick for L.A. Still, I bet you felt better when Bay ripped into a John Lackey creampuff.
Speaking of Manny, are you worried about his old partner David Ortiz? Is Big Papi Magic a thing of the past? No question this has been a tough season for him, what with the wrist problem and the Manny trade. I was looking for something big from Ortiz in the 7th inning with the score 2-1 and runners on first and third with two outs. Instead, Darren Oliver fanned him.
How many of you would rather see Dustin Pedroia or Kevin Youkilis up in the clutch, ahead of Big Papi? Maybe he forgot it was October.
Well, it is. Game 2 tonight. Whatcha got, Dice-K?
(Lenny Megliola is a Daily News columnist. His e-mail is lennymegs@aol.com)
