The At Risk Properties Committee this week completed its final analysis of several development scenarios for the Arshad and Kennedy properties off Winter Street near the Waltham line.
The report examines the potential impacts, positive and negative, of development options for the 8.6-acre Arshad parcel and the 20.5-acre combined Arshad-Kennedy properties.
Development scenarios examined in the report include: single-family residential, multi-family residential (including condominiums and apartments) with affordable housing, offices, religious and educational uses.
"You can look at these as both threats and opportunities," said Selectman and At Risk Properties Committee Chairman Gary Taylor.
Taylor says the At Risk Properties Committee was established in 2005 to analyze options for six sites under development pressure. The charge to the properties committee was to determine the "most reasonable" development options as well as the potential impacts on the surrounding neighborhoods and the town as a whole, Taylor said.
"Our conclusion was that the town ought to be proactive about trying to manage these issues," said Taylor.
The Arshad property was not on the original list for consideration but the neighboring Kennedy parcel was.
Taylor said the review's ultimate goal is to make people aware of potential development options so both residents and town boards can be better informed should a formal proposal be brought before the Planning Board. At this stage the town can negotiate with a developer to amend the proposal, Taylor said.
In addition to Planning Board oversight of any proposed development on the Arshad property, residents would have to sign off on a zoning change from residential to commercial, which would require a two-thirds vote of Town Meeting, Taylor said.
"It's got to be almost a consensus project because it has to go through Town Meeting. The hurdle is extremely high. There are lots of protections," he said.
Opponents of an office development on Winter Street have also taken issue with the revenue projections included in the report. In addition to projections from an independent consultant, the report contains three other financial models, including those of the developer, LPI.
Should LPI come forward with a formal development proposal, Taylor said it would be up to the Planning Board to weigh the potential impacts of commercial development against other development scenarios for the property.
While an office development would produce the most revenue for the town, it would also produce the greatest traffic and could threaten the one-way designation on Winter Street. Taylor said a one-way Winter Street is critical to managing traffic through Lincoln. The negatives probably outweigh the positives, he said.
"This will likely not be something the town is interested in for a commercial property," Taylor said.
The At Risk Properties Committee report will be made available to the public on the Town web site (www.lincolntown.org), at the Lincoln Public Library and at the Town Offices.
The committee will present the report to a joint meeting of the Selectmen and Planning Board on Monday, Sept. 22, at 7:30 p.m.
