After a roller-coaster ride of a week that has divided neighbors and claimed the career of the city's chief executive, voters will head to the polls Tuesday to determine if they are willing to permanently raise their taxes by $12 million.
At stake are the jobs of nearly 80 school employees and 40 city employees, the loss of branch libraries and a reduction of services in nearly every department.
Despite an 11th hour decision by Mayor David Cohen not to run for re-election - in hopes of removing himself as a campaign issue - it remains to be seen if recession-wary voters are willing to part with more tax dollars, especially given frustrations regarding the escalating cost of the new Newton North High School.
"The decision of our citizens in a few short weeks will have an indelible impact on our ability to provide programs and services at a level we have all become accustomed to and that residents have a right to expect," Cohen said in his annual budget address last week. "This is a profound choice before us, and our vote will determine what kind of city we want Newton to be."
To override supporters, Tuesday's special election always seemed like an uphill battle, given general concerns about the economy and specific complaints about the mayor's job performance, particularly concerning the high school.
What is not known is if the vote has shifted following the torrent of events in the last week. Within 24 hours of Cohen's budgetary address, the story broke that the mayor had quietly slipped a $27,600 pay raise (28 percent over his current salary) into the budget and had awarded double-digit pay raises to his closest staff members and departments heads - all non-union City Hall employees - over the last two years.
A day after the story came out, Cohen announced he would not pursue his raise.
But his move may have been too late in many residents' minds, including members of the campaign group leading the effort the pass the override. In a letter to Cohen, representatives of pro-override Move Newton Forward said publicly what many of the mayor's closest advisers had been saying to him privately for weeks.
"The manner and timing of this announcement could not have been worse for our campaign," the letter read. "It was a slap in the face to our organization and served to undermine much of our hard work."
It continued, "The entire episode reflects critical misjudgments and more importantly, serves as a great distraction from the task at hand: winning the support for the override on May 20th ... We urge the mayor to announce that he will not run for re-election in 2009."
Bending under pressure, Cohen announced his decision not to seek re-election. In a statement, he said that the success of this override is more important than his political career.
"It's been a whirlwind of a week," said political activist Tom Sheff. "A lot of people weren't voting for the override because they didn't like the management style of the mayor. To some people, this would take David Cohen out of the equation and free them up to say yes.
"I think (the events) might be enough to shift the vote slightly," the former mayoral and alderman candidate added, "but I don't know if it will be enough for the pro-override side to win."
Many residents are campaigning with their front lawns, planting red or blue signs indicating their stand on the May 20 vote.
"If signs could vote, this override would pass," said state Sen. Cynthia Stone Creem in her observation of Newton's yards, although that could depend on which neighborhood you were driving through.
Others are passing out literature at school events or waving from street corners, hoping to catch the eye of those still undecided.
The override vote will have an impact on many homeowners, causing the tax bill for a median-assessed home to jump by $373 on top of the $166 increase that homeowner would see regardless of the override.
"We know it's going to be difficult for all sorts of people," said Alderman Ted Hess-Mahan, an override supporter. "There will always be people who have a hard time getting by (with a tax increase), but I think a majority of people can afford it."
If the override doesn't pass, people will also be affected, Hess-Mahan said. "I know many people who benefit from city services and who are going to be hurt if the override doesn't pass, so it cuts both ways."
Because the economy is slipping into a recession, many residents will be feeling a crunch, said freshman Alderman Greer Tan Swiston. It's unfair to put the burden on residents' shoulders without the city making some sacrifices, too, she said. Before she can support the override, she needs to see what the city is doing to tighten their belt.
"These are tough times," she said. "But these are tough times for everyone and we - as a city - have got to respect that."
As residents contemplate which bubble to darken in the polling booth and spend the next few days soaking up last-minute information, crews in the Election Department are preparing for a good turnout.
"I would anticipate that this is a big one," said Craig Manseau, elections commission executive secretary. "I've noticed a lot of activity on both sides of the street driving in here. This election will have a high turnout ... Newton tends to be very active in local elections."
The last override vote in Newton - in April 2002 - passed by a margin of 709 votes, 14,251 in favor and 13,542 against.
Chrissie Long can be reached at clong@cnc.com.
